A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
